The Australian Energy Market Operator Annual WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (Dec 2020)
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released its annual WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) in December 2020, providing a 10-year outlook for the state’s supply and demand forecasts for 2021 – 2030. Here is our summary of key points sourced from the report.
Over the outlook period, Western Australia’s overall domestic gas supply is expected to decrease by 2.8% per annum, while market demand will see an increase of 0.7% per annum1.
While supply is expected to continue to meet demand until 2026, it will be a fine balance thereafter to meet WA’s domestic gas demand with forecasts showing demand will outstrip supply by 20292.
Major contributing factors for the decline in supply are reserve depletion at existing facilities and COVID-19’s impact on international Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) demand3.
As per the state government’s WA Domestic Gas Policy, LNG projects must reserve 15% of their exports exclusively for the WA gas market4. However, the state’s largest LNG export projects, located in the off-shore Scarborough and Browse basins, have now been delayed due to international market conditions5.
The increase in domestic gas demand is expected to be seen predominantly by its use in in the mining and mineral resources sector over the next 2 – 5 years, in line with increased demand for Australian commodities such as gold and iron-ore6. Notably bucking the trend, gas demand from the South-West Interconnected System (SWIS) Gas-Powered-Generation (GPG) facilities – which in 2018/19 comprised 43% of the state’s gas consumption7 versus a forecasted 11% by 20308 – is expected to decrease by an average of 0.4% per annum due to the introduction of large-scale renewable energy generation projects, higher gas costs, and declining electricity consumption9.
The challenge remains to combat an under-supplied gas market from 2029; AEMO’s 2020 WA GSOO suggests that excess reserves from 2021 – 2026 production may be available, gas storage facilities may be utilised, and undeveloped and as-yet unknown gas fields may yet come into play in future GSOO forecasts10.
For more information please refer to the full report 2020 WA GSOO published on AEMO’s website.
12020 WA GSOO, page 3
22020 WA GSOO, page 45
32020 WA GSOO, page 32
42020 WA GSOO, page 37
52020 WA GSOO, page 32
62020 WA GSOO, page 7
72020 WA GSOO, page 17
82020 WA GSOO, Table 7 page 23
92020 WA GSOO, pages 23-24
102020 WA GSOO, page 5